The State of Aviation in 2026 with A320 First Officer Stefan Lorenz – Pilot Hiring, Opportunities & the Road Ahead

00:00:00:

00:00:27: The views shared in this podcast are personal and for informational purposes only.

00:00:31: They do not reflect any employer or aviation authority and nothing discussed here should be considered.

00:00:35: flight training, regulatory guidance.

00:00:37: Please always refer to official sources.

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00:00:47: Welcome to AviationQuest.C.

00:00:49: this is Episode forty nine.

00:00:51: I'm your host Jürgen Reis And i am the only host in the podcast cockpit With me as usual is Stefan joining me from sunny island.

00:01:05: I mean also here in Austria, west of Austria.

00:01:08: it's a late summer day but i guess in the Mediterranean Stefan still absolutely summer.

00:01:17: It's getting a bit cooler now, so first of all hello Jürgen!

00:01:21: So yeah we are below thirty degrees which is super nice.

00:01:25: We haven't seen that in a very long time but it still sunny warm and very nice...so yes hey Jürger how are you?

00:01:32: All good?

00:01:34: Good I was just thinking chilling down a little bit.

00:01:37: the temperature could be already a hint on what todays podcast is about.

00:01:43: Yeah, I mean if you allow can we already have this time maybe the topic of the podcast in a very beginning?

00:01:54: Of course.

00:01:55: It was

00:01:55: your ideas but i really loved it because what came up with is today that were taking closer look at state aviation industry and where it may be heading next.

00:02:11: And the expert is, yeah A-Series XXI officer Stefan Lorenz bringing us perspective from inside European airline operations.

00:02:22: And Stefan, I think you had some inspiration also.

00:02:28: Today the sky is a little bit overcast You don't know it's a little unsure and this could be an analogy of what the aviation industry is at the moment.

00:02:43: Would you agree?

00:02:46: The idea behind this podcast was that when we started off We had a lot of questions about recruitment, people that wanted to join the industry and at that time everything looked amazing.

00:02:58: Everybody was looking.

00:02:59: there were huge lack of pilots There were openings everywhere.

00:03:05: so we gave them advice.

00:03:07: this is great time for joining etc.

00:03:11: but obviously now fast forward practically one year later The world looks very different And the industry looks different.

00:03:21: So that was the idea, and yeah...

00:03:26: By the way, Stefan is right!

00:03:30: We were live on tape or we recorded.

00:03:32: certainly A podcast is always a strategic project.

00:03:36: We also discussed this privately before this conversation, but yeah last summer we started recording the first episodes and then other ones are more certainly in fall And today by the way September the twentieth twenty-twenty six.

00:03:53: So keep this in the back of your mind, which you know when you hear information today.

00:03:59: This is a state-of-the industry by today and our own opinion.

00:04:04: I think we can stick to it.

00:04:07: Yeah every prediction so what's gonna happen are going be extremely difficult because everything like you already said its very unsettled Very unsure.

00:04:20: We need to be very careful with this and of course none Of us know what's gonna happen over the next few months in years.

00:04:28: But state-of-the-industry as it is now we can certainly discuss, And It has changed quite a lot.

00:04:35: Yeah but let's maybe start with an easy prediction.

00:04:40: A really easy prediction because we are on audiocasts and we Are all over the streaming platforms at the internet.

00:04:48: you can also Find us on our home page aviation-quest.cc.

00:04:53: We are on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon podcast, podcast addicts.

00:04:59: but we're also at YouTube thanks to Stefan who is known as the creator behind FS Clips.

00:05:08: and there's usually a real world flight going on this real-world flight simulator created by Stefan at YouTube, which is so to say the background of today's audio.

00:05:23: What's going on?

00:05:23: Today they are Stefan.

00:05:26: Yeah we're going down under.

00:05:28: We are flying from Sydney to Tasmania using the Fokker one hundred by Just Flight in Qantas livery and it's a very nice flight.

00:05:39: It's along the coast And then across the sea onto Tasmania.

00:05:44: Very Nice Flight

00:05:46: Okay.

00:05:48: Yeah, should we jump in what we already introduced to our listeners?

00:05:54: The state of the industry.

00:05:56: Yes Stefan overall how would you describe the aviation industry right now?

00:06:03: as I said in September or late September?

00:06:06: twenty-twenty six

00:06:09: yeah it's unsettled i think is the best way to describe.

00:06:16: Most airlines seem still optimistic because they're still ordering new aircraft.

00:06:24: The airline group I fly for just confirmed that we are close to deal with Boeing, We gonna get even more bowings now.

00:06:34: and other airlines especially in the Middle East They still order tons of aircraft.

00:06:41: Nobody's canceling orders or delaying orders so That part looks very positive.

00:06:47: So aircraft are still coming and the airlines will need people to fly them, but at the same time when you speak to their management they're very cautious especially When it comes to destinations that might just close a short notice.

00:07:05: And of course The huge fluctuations Of the fuel price.

00:07:10: fuel is the biggest expense for any airline Right now, fuel prices are shooting up and down like crazy.

00:07:21: So it's very difficult for airlines to predict... ...to make any plans or have contingencies of all that stuff.

00:07:31: And so they've become a bit more careful with recruiting.

00:07:35: They became more careful about training internally delaying certain plans.

00:07:44: That's currently the feeling I get.

00:07:47: You already touched on this topic in the very beginning, because certainly last year now there has been change going on.

00:07:56: but what has changed most to sum it up during past years Stefan or especially during the past months?

00:08:15: Long after the pandemic, everything looked amazing.

00:08:20: People were flying like crazy.

00:08:24: No airline had enough pilots There was jobs everywhere.

00:08:29: You could literally have five job offers on a table Especially if you weren't an experienced pilot And that has changed A lot.

00:08:39: So yeah The amount of airlines looking Has reduced significantly.

00:08:45: And just the way, like at that time after the pandemic we started opening new bases and roots.

00:08:55: We went into a new market which has all stopped... ...and I actually did have Q&A with our big boss not too long ago online and everybody was allowed to ask questions.

00:09:09: And I posed the question as well, what's going on with expansion?

00:09:14: New destinations... He said at that moment it is very difficult.

00:09:20: It a slow process.

00:09:23: Our Middle Eastern destinations are continuously being closed.

00:09:28: We have to cancel all flights.

00:09:34: the whole environment we work in and fly, has become a lot more unstable.

00:09:39: And it makes it very difficult to plan ahead... ...and predict what's going to happen next!

00:09:49: Everything happens so fast as well you know?

00:09:53: Within two weeks there is new war happening….

00:10:00: I think that's the biggest change.

00:10:01: We've gone from a period that looked super positive with growth and recruitment everywhere to one where everything has become very unstable.

00:10:13: How do you see this situation in Europe specifically, Stefan?

00:10:19: Yeah... Europe is one of those places which are hit hard by fuel prices.

00:10:31: Although, I mean...I don't know about specific countries but the EU and most countries have shifted in terms of where they're getting their fuel from.

00:10:44: They are looking for more reliable sources like the US or Canada.

00:10:49: so It seems to me that the initial, I don't know if you remember when the war in Iran started there were talks we're gonna run out of fuel and might have to cancel flights because it's not enough fuel.

00:11:06: That has actually never materialized Because luckily everybody was very quick to change over new sources for kerosene.

00:11:18: So...that is a big thing.

00:11:22: So that obviously drove up the prices of fuel, so for us pilots.

00:11:26: That means we have to be a lot more conscious.

00:11:30: I mean We always conscious about fuel.

00:11:32: it is the biggest Expense.

00:11:34: but now we are even more conscious About fuel usage and try to be really conservative if fly much slower And all that stuff.

00:11:47: The other thing mentioned very much is this in Europe.

00:11:53: So obviously the UK left, The European Union.

00:11:58: so if you want to work there You need a visa now.

00:12:02: This has never been a problem for pilots because There's been such a pilot shortage that anyone who applied two I don't know British Airways Virgin chat too.

00:12:13: they would automatically get a visa from the government because they were listed as a job that is in need, in demand.

00:12:21: Now I don't know why but they've removed pilots from this list.

00:12:26: so right now for someone like me who lives in mainland Europe uh The UK is out of bounds.

00:12:35: you won't get a Visa and They cannot even accept applications now from people outside of the UK.

00:12:43: And it may not sound like much, but you know we're talking about a huge market with lots of airlines as I said.

00:12:56: Virgin, Jet too.

00:12:57: You have EasyJet, Rainer.

00:12:59: they all have UK registered aircraft there and many other things.

00:13:04: so I know personally people that had been affected by this were planning to go there.

00:13:09: They are already in the process of going through a disselection And then they received an email saying sorry we can no longer accept you as an employer.

00:13:23: So sorry, as an employee.

00:13:27: Yeah so that's another thing that has affected us.

00:13:30: for those who were quite open to go into other countries and cut off the whole market.

00:13:38: I think these are two biggest changes.

00:13:40: The recruitment hasn't dried up but become a lot more difficult.

00:13:46: like where i fly we stopped recruiting altogether The UK market is no longer accessible to people from within the EU, and few prices in Europe have been crazy.

00:14:03: So those I think are the biggest challenges here in Europe for us right now.

00:14:08: And of course if you work with an airline that flies a lot to the Middle East That's another problem.

00:14:14: Now Where I fly, we do have flights to Iraq and Dubai Abu Dhabi Tel Aviv.

00:14:24: None of these flights are happening right now.

00:14:26: they've been cancelled basically for months And We don't know when their coming back but luckily For us They make a small percentage Of our network.

00:14:39: So For me personally it doesn't Have A big effect But some airlines It does

00:14:47: Would you say all over the industry.

00:14:50: has airline hiring become more selective, Stefan?

00:14:55: Yeah.

00:14:55: I think so!

00:14:57: It's interesting because when you look at the Middle East they've always sucked a lot of pilots out of Europe not just Europe but whole world.

00:15:10: They have huge demand for pilots like Emirates, Etihad, Qatar.

00:15:15: Now the Saudis are trying to build huge airlines with hundreds and hundreds of aircraft.

00:15:22: They're offering amazing contracts, tax-free salaries that double triple what we earn here with great conditions and all that

00:15:32: stuff.".

00:15:36: What I found really interesting was...I know people who have applied.

00:15:41: when the war started they were told sorry We're not recruiting anymore because they were quite worried about what was going to happen.

00:15:51: But now from what I've heard, the all starting again.

00:15:54: so which is interesting?

00:15:56: Because the war hasn't ended in my mind Not much has changed but for whatever reason They've decided that yeah it's time again to recruit.

00:16:06: So That's quite interesting and then that will start sucking out people again From Europe.

00:16:13: Now if those people that applied before the war are now actually willing to go, I do not know because in my opinion it's a higher risk.

00:16:25: To go to the Middle East Now than It was Before.

00:16:28: so we will see what effect That Will have?

00:16:31: Before it Was always A constant conveyor belt of People leaving going to The middle east to earn a lot Of money and therefore They had to be replaced has stopped and is now about to start again.

00:16:46: So it's going to be very interesting to see how many people are actually willing to go there, And what that will affect us like I... Again i personally know People who have applied.

00:16:59: they're on the waiting list.

00:17:01: It'll Be Interesting To See if They Really Go.

00:17:05: Once You Get The Phone Call and Say okay you can come whether They're Willing to go There or not.

00:17:10: That'S Gonna Be a big factor for us, I think in terms of recruitment.

00:17:16: The other thing is that now where the airlines have stopped recruiting not all but most schools are still producing students so they're being You know, I don't want it to make... It sounds like a factory.

00:17:34: But you know what that means?

00:17:36: There's still flight students coming out of all the academies and flight schools but at the moment there is not ...I don't think there are demands for them.

00:17:47: so the pool of unemployed young pilots is growing.

00:17:52: So when the time comes and airlines start looking again, it will be more competitive for sure.

00:17:59: Because as always they only want the best of the best.

00:18:04: so I think those are to answer your question... ...I think that would become more competitive?

00:18:10: yes It will be.

00:18:12: Because just

00:18:13: to share a little bit here of my perspective, as many listeners know by now I coach pilots in mental performance and besides simulator sessions and training environments are also focused on assessments.

00:18:26: And yeah Just the last two weeks i worked with a pilot Also the people that contact me via LinkedIn, assessment seems to be more and more a top so-to say priority.

00:18:43: My guessing here is really or my takeaway it's there.

00:18:46: they want to be also from mental part you know?

00:18:49: They wanna on their absolutely A game have every box checked And this certainly only I think especially mental performance coaching.

00:19:00: This is really, yeah.

00:19:01: But for an assessment it can be crucial especially when you're dealing with nerves and also check this cross-box beforehand.

00:19:09: but certainly if the assessment is easy going there's no reason to show nerves... ...but seems quite opposite as a case!

00:19:19: Yeah I guess one of things That has changed for young guys going on girls, of course coming into the industry before you would Send off your applications and you will get I don't know three four invitations to different interviews.

00:19:39: Easy go now.

00:19:41: Yeah Now You probably only got one.

00:19:49: It is a big chance and you have to be as I said, You have all the boxes checked.

00:19:54: Yes exactly so that has changed a lot And obviously puts more pressure on everyone trying To find their job right now because they are less than less.

00:20:07: Therefore you compete with more and more applicants.

00:20:12: But yeah

00:20:13: from problem-to-resolution What do you think are airlines looking for in palates today, certainly?

00:20:22: For me an easy question.

00:20:23: But yeah take your time to think and answer it

00:20:27: as profound

00:20:28: as you can.

00:20:29: Stefan

00:20:31: I Think There's a bit of a misconception.

00:20:36: sometimes people think that what Airlines want is A genius or somebody who really good at physics or maths.

00:20:46: Of course, you need to know your stuff.

00:20:47: But they're looking for someone who's very rounded somebody Who has a personality that Has no peaks and troughs is if that makes sense?

00:20:58: A lot of the assessments will test all kinds of things And they don't want us here huge spike or a huge drop in any of these things.

00:21:07: You need to be fairly good at a lot of different Things.

00:21:11: then you need To Be able to deal with a Lot of Different Things at the same time.

00:21:15: The flying, I mean obviously they need to see good flying skills but from an airline perspective they will teach you how they want you to operate the aircraft.

00:21:26: so as long as you are not completely fluking your sim check right that it has never been the most important part because you're going to have a type rating on a specific aircraft and you will have to learn the company procedures, everything that has to do with the aircraft.

00:21:48: That will set you up for operating and flying that aircraft the way the company wants you to do so.

00:21:55: but rest is stuff they can't teach you which are most important.

00:22:02: things like attitude of job or safety being professional, being communicative understanding the importance of things like CRM crew resource management.

00:22:17: You know these are things that are very hard to teach.

00:22:21: you can obviously talk about it but ideally a person would come with those qualities.

00:22:27: so really I think and this has never changed its always been the same at least since i've What you're looking for is someone who has a good situational awareness, who's communicative.

00:22:45: Who is open also for input from colleagues... ...who are happy to get feedback and takes it on board.

00:22:57: somebody that is thoughtful or professional understand the importance of procedures, and obviously put safety at top everything.

00:23:09: So all these qualities that I mean think about it.

00:23:12: if you are a passenger what kind guide do want in front?

00:23:21: No, just saying.

00:23:24: And if you put yourself in the shoe of a passenger and let's say it is bad day today its going to be windy and thunderstorms do think I hope i have pilot like this that exactly what they are looking for.

00:23:37: That´s exactly guy they want because thats the guy we all want.

00:23:42: So... Its bit tricky Because alot these things I'm sure you can improve on them, but a lot of them i find sometimes are just character-driven things.

00:23:56: So um... You know more about this than I do in terms of mental coaching and things like these?

00:24:04: I am sure that you can change your attitude to certain things!

00:24:07: This job has taught me a lot ...and I've changed my attitude towards certain things.

00:24:14: But I do honestly believe there's a certain character type that is more suitable to this than maybe others.

00:24:25: So, i'm afraid if you are not the right character it's going to be very hard.

00:24:32: but like I said... It's not science a difficult science or secret, it's all very common sense.

00:24:42: I find what the pilot should be like.

00:24:47: Like i said this is more your area of expertise?

00:24:50: What do you think?

00:24:52: am I expressing myself in the right way here?

00:24:56: Correctly!

00:24:57: You have to be.

00:25:04: Boys and girls out there the choose pilot is here are already I mean if they come out of flight school And everything is okay.

00:25:13: I think they are already in The right ballpark Of becoming a professional pilot, but certainly especially with mental performance.

00:25:23: Communication expressing yourself dealing with other people.

00:25:27: those are often skills that are far away from flying the airplane.

00:25:33: Also with athletes, I always have here my parallel to metal performance in elite sports.

00:25:43: There is somehow a parallel.

00:25:45: i guess you have bring up specific personality but there's huge part which can be trained.

00:25:55: But obviously this not the job of flight school.

00:25:58: This something we really work out.

00:26:01: also Stefan This is, it's so to say grow as a personality and also be able to see.

00:26:10: okay I am weak in this area or I'm so-to-say maybe unable to communicate clearly.

00:26:17: Or to deal with negative feedback or show nerves.

00:26:22: And certainly these are where personality of mental coaching can be huge positive impact.

00:26:30: I also didn't think that i needed mental coaching until i failed a couple of times when you are unable to get the table.

00:26:39: what's in your?

00:26:41: this was happening for me, before i contacted my sports psychologist here in nineteen ninety seven.

00:26:49: You always think we're best but often skills aren't enough and have ability.

00:26:57: I mean in climbing.

00:27:01: it was the same, you have to be able perform on a team.

00:27:06: Stefan what do you think about this?

00:27:08: You are an expert today but i just put my train of thoughts together here.

00:27:14: yeah i agree one hundred percent.

00:27:19: Yeah, if you look at the journey from what we call zero-to-hero.

00:27:27: From someone with no experience to The cockpit of an airline.

00:27:31: If he looked at that whole journey What that person has to go through?

00:27:34: Yes There's a lot of maths and physics in flying but actually there is huge chunk Of assessments That have nothing to do with flying Absolutely Nothing.

00:27:46: And We discussed this offline at some point.

00:27:51: This industry is quite harsh in the sense that every stage of your journey, they're going to use a sieve and they are gonna sift out people who don't want it on their system.

00:28:03: so everytime you have an exam or go through ATPLs like flight tests or any kind interview basically get rid of the kind people they don't want to move further up the ladder.

00:28:22: And you're gonna have this throughout your career, like even when you've been flying for many years.

00:28:29: at some point you'll be asked or maybe able apply to become a captain again.

00:28:36: There's a high failure rate on that because again, it is another sieve.

00:28:41: Then maybe you become captain and want to be training captain Again.

00:28:44: fail rates huge.

00:28:47: This the way industry set up.

00:28:49: so I think if You make all of this through into the cockpit of an airliner It should tell you actually have what it takes And then your personality traits to be there in the first place.

00:29:09: I think flights because nowadays they take care, i hope most of them do take care that you are already yeah... You ARE qualified but qualified doesn't mean that you get a job!

00:29:25: Yeah.. That's the other thing.

00:29:28: Back to the questionnaire here Stefan if you allow.

00:29:31: But if there's anything that you think, as I said.

00:29:35: You are the expert today and just give my input here As a mental performance coach.

00:29:41: but i made a joke A couple of minutes ago when I was asking what kind Of ballads do we want in a cockpit?

00:29:48: Something along those lines.

00:29:50: And I said Stephans This was partly a joke but partly it wasn't.

00:29:58: How would you answer this question, how different is the situation for new pilots and experienced pilots?

00:30:04: Because my guessing putting all your answers already together.

00:30:11: New pilots got a super hard job in the moment.

00:30:17: unfortunately it's not fair but whenever airlines have no huge need of pilots They put up the requirements.

00:30:32: And one of their requirements they always put up is the experience, so maybe some jobs that would have been open to people coming out of flight school are no longer available to them and instead it says you need a minimum of I don't know.

00:30:48: two thousand hours on whatever seven three seven or eight three twenty.

00:30:56: Unfortunately, that's the way it works.

00:30:58: I've been through this and had to wait for a long time before even got invited into an interview where I saw airlines hiring but none of them were interested in allowing our guy like myself.

00:31:14: It will happen eventually.

00:31:16: when somebody offers you something.

00:31:19: The only advice i can give is your first job is your entry into the industry?

00:31:26: Even if it's not something you particularly want to do or did have in mind, just take it.

00:31:33: Do it!

00:31:35: It's gonna be experience...it's going to be hours and then you get your foot in ...you meet people from the industry....and um.. You're just inside and that's already a huge step.

00:31:49: so My advice, especially in a situation like this when things are so unsettled and nobody knows.

00:31:55: When there's going to be recruitment again if you do get that offer maybe it is not the company you really wanted to fly for doesn't matter just go for it because once we have few hours It will give us huge advantage.

00:32:13: already building beautiful bridge.

00:32:15: next question here Stefan, where do you currently see opportunities in Europe?

00:32:26: It's actually quite difficult to be honest.

00:32:32: The big recruiters have always been the low-cost airlines.

00:32:36: The way it used to work here was... Low cost airlines will take people from flight school.

00:32:43: They fly a lot, you know You go to somewhere like Ryan and easyjet.

00:32:47: Do have your three four sectors every day?

00:32:49: You build ours very very quickly.

00:32:52: they usually Have a very strict regime so you learn To really really follow procedures SOPs all that stuff And once you have enough hours you move on to the majors.

00:33:05: That used to be The path that most people took here.

00:33:12: This has changed quite a lot.

00:33:16: First of all, we've seen the huge expansion of low-cost airlines and they really needed to start holding people in their company.

00:33:29: At the beginning, they were quite happy for people to come in and leave because the longer you stay or higher your salary will get.

00:33:37: This was a good business model for them.

00:33:39: They got cheap people from flight school before it became too expensive to go to KLM, Air France wherever at least.

00:33:51: this doesn't work anymore as these airlines have exploded.

00:33:55: If you look at the biggest airlines in Europe, they're no longer majors.

00:33:59: They all... if we look at a top ten that is just low-cost, low cost, low costs.

00:34:04: Ryan is the biggest airline in Europe right now with over six hundred aircrafts and cannot afford to lose these people.

00:34:11: so the conditions of low cost have changed quite a lot.

00:34:15: In many ways they've become very attractive employers.

00:34:21: And so this brings me to your actual question.

00:34:23: Where are the opportunities?

00:34:25: It's difficult because, um... Because the majors from what I've seen they almost all of them have stopped and low-cost airlines aren't in that situation anymore where people want to leave desperately pretty good salaries.

00:34:47: They have a good, cozy job and they're less inclined to change company especially if you think there's risk involved.

00:34:56: so somebody who I don't know would fly for EasyJet then always want go to Emirates in the past because it was definitely better deal right now.

00:35:10: The conditions are actually really willing and more hesitant to make that jump.

00:35:20: So I think if you are in the market right now, You need to be very open.

00:35:25: And do you really look even outside?

00:35:29: The box there might Be a position as a flight instructor at a flight school somewhere.

00:35:34: or maybe I mean i started off working for company that run full motion Flight simulators.

00:35:43: Maybe That's your first step into the industry.

00:35:48: And maybe that's the kind of thing you have to do.

00:35:51: and I'm not saying there are no jobs, they're still recruitment going on.

00:35:55: it is all that crazy, but it's a lot less than it used to be.

00:36:01: So maybe the best opportunity is just to spread your net as wide you possibly can and take everything into consideration from cargo to air ambulances.

00:36:16: I think if you're willing to do that and if you are willing to follow the job, You might have to move country.

00:36:24: I certainly had to move Country for my job.

00:36:28: Then i think there's... That will open a lot of doors For you.

00:36:32: It'll give more opportunities.

00:36:34: If your mindset is just flying in Your own country And you only want to fly on an airline Thats gonna limit you alot.

00:36:44: Speaking of networking also Linked in to say the easiest way take care of your linked-in profile and also connect there with industry.

00:36:54: I mean, I found out last month's that linked in is so to say The who.

00:37:00: it's who in aviation?

00:37:01: And also certainly if you want to connect with me Jürgen Reis.

00:37:05: Is my profile the Direct link?

00:37:08: he's also on a show.

00:37:09: notes off the podcast.

00:37:10: scroll down below the teaser.

00:37:12: There is not only picture and the LinkedIn version of the teaser going on every Tuesday.

00:37:21: On every Thursday there is a freebie for my so-called mental coaching syllabus for aviation professionals, it's an internal coaching workbook I created throughout last month started years ago but i gave focus to it in recent months.

00:37:43: Everybody who connects with me, by the way is accepted automatically.

00:37:48: By myself only.

00:37:50: I am on this profile and yeah spread your wings!

00:37:55: And I think flexibility Stefan when i get this right it's key.

00:38:01: Yeah absolutely like I said you need to be flexible You need to willing to accept...I'm not gonna say any job.

00:38:10: that sounds a bit dramatic but just you may maybe lower your expectation.

00:38:15: You're not gonna start up in a triple seven flying to the Maldives, it's unlikely so if you are willing to accept that then I think you gotta be fine.

00:38:27: The thing is there'a lot of airlines... Not A LOT!

00:38:31: There some Airlines That Are In Real Financial Trouble Right Now And They Just Hanging On For Dear Life.

00:38:40: Of course, if one or two of them will go bankrupt some of them are actually quite big.

00:38:47: That we'll flood the market with thousands of pilots with experience type ratings and then that would change this situation again.

00:38:59: but right now... We don't know!

00:39:06: and that they are hanging on just by a thin thread right now, maybe they'll survive.

00:39:15: Obviously this is what I wish them and the people who work there but we don't know.

00:39:21: if unfortunately one or two of them go bankrupt.

00:39:26: some employ hundreds of pilots so more.

00:39:31: then situation will change again.

00:39:34: like i said it's all very unsettled right now.

00:39:37: Sure, sure but I think it's my job as a mental performance coach to give this a little bit of positive twist.

00:39:44: so what gives you confidence?

00:39:46: You know coming toward the end of this episode Stefan What gives your confidence about the industry at all in future...in the near-future and also maybe looking over next two or three years?

00:40:04: Yeah, I mean it's like a set prediction is very.

00:40:07: Very this is very difficult.

00:40:10: But what does make me positive?

00:40:11: Is flights are full.

00:40:14: always people are flying People still want to go on holidays they want to see friends families.

00:40:22: So planes of fall and if planes are full that means we need pilots also.

00:40:29: Like I said before airline orders from what I have seen are still all in place and there's a lot of them.

00:40:37: Airbus has the backlog, I think of five thousand aircraft something crazy like that?

00:40:44: And i haven't seen any airlines saying we cancel the order or anything like that.

00:40:49: so all the orders is going ahead.

00:40:52: now.

00:40:53: i am aware that a lot these new aircraft replacing older ones it not just growth but overall If you do the math, there will be growth.

00:41:06: It has to because it's just too many aircraft on order right now.

00:41:10: so The fact that the airlines are willing to take on those planes... ...the fact that they at the planes of full I think a good science.

00:41:19: We have not yet seen what we've seen in the past where all of a sudden There was a huge drop In passenger numbers and Airlines had to cancel orders park aircraft higher, sorry fire pilots or maybe put them on compulsory part time.

00:41:36: None of these things have happened from a day-to-day business.

00:41:41: nothing has changed for us in the cockpit or in the cabin we fly We fly a lot The planes are full.

00:41:48: so From purely an operational standpoint it looks pretty good.

00:41:54: It looks pretty stable.

00:41:56: We are all aware of what's going on around us.

00:41:59: And, of course we do get our emails off... Yeah!

00:42:02: ...we can't fly there anymore and we cant' fly there any more.

00:42:07: But I don't know.

00:42:11: it is a weird feeling that you hear these things but then go to work.

00:42:15: everything just normal.

00:42:16: the plane is full everybody happy and everything seems normal.

00:42:23: So that makes me positive, we haven't seen a huge slump or anything in passenger numbers so anything like that.

00:42:30: Everything is running as it did over the last few years I think at least for the moment management of their companies expect this to carry on.

00:42:40: they're all talking about growth.

00:42:42: new roots fly for has just increased the number of bowings we're going to get.

00:42:55: So I do think maybe that's a good sign, That's a Good sign!

00:43:00: Maybe this will all calm down again and things will return to what be called normal hopefully soon?

00:43:09: Yeah.

00:43:10: so already the second or last question here yeah certainly usually add around thirty minutes, but today it's a special episode.

00:43:20: so we have a whole main part and the intro and outro together.

00:43:24: We are still within normal podcast time of our episodes.

00:43:31: But if somebody listening to you know starting flight training what do they tell someone like in this situation?

00:43:39: Starting out today or next week?

00:43:42: some answers I

00:43:45: think just go for it because if you wait for the moment where it looks all rosy and great, that's when we start.

00:43:54: You don't know what is going to happen by the time your done!

00:43:57: The training takes two years roughly.

00:44:00: so who knows whats gonna be happening in two years?

00:44:04: So If this is...If This Is What You Want To Do ...if you've got everything already lined up then just go for it.

00:44:10: maybe In Two Years We Have A Pilot Shortage Again.

00:44:13: I mean, nobody knows.

00:44:15: Nobody can make that prediction.

00:44:17: so i would just go for it and put a hundred percent of your effort and energy into it And like you and me both said take as much from the training As You Can.

00:44:30: Just be super prepared if we ever get invited to an interview because It is A bit more competitive right now.

00:44:38: but yeah...I personally think delaying a training that lasts for two years on something happening right now, I'm not sure.

00:44:50: That's good idea!

00:44:51: It is easy to say and have all this behind me but if you don't do it in time everybody screaming out for pilots will bite yourself into the butt.

00:45:07: so i would just go with it.

00:45:10: And like I said, we're still getting new aircraft.

00:45:14: We are having full aircraft.

00:45:16: so yeah just do it.

00:45:19: I was just smiling with Stefan.

00:45:21: you were yourself the best proof that this can be done even... You also started flight training in a good time and then there is almost worse case two-oh eight to oh nine and finally or eventually you ended up doing great job.

00:45:39: Exactly, yes.

00:45:40: I'm the perfect example.

00:45:43: when i started people got out of flight school with job offers on the table before they had finished a training.

00:45:51: When I finished there were thousands of unemployed pilots across Europe and There was zero chance Of a job for someone like me.

00:46:01: so it's very hard to make a prediction but I never give up And eventually it worked out You know, one of those big major airlines.

00:46:14: So yeah... If this is what you want to do with your life if This Is Your Passion I would still say go for it.

00:46:22: It's an amazing job!

00:46:24: An amazing industry and you're gonna have an amazing time.

00:46:31: Yeah Stefan Do.

00:46:32: at the end of this episode Is there anything important about The current aviation industry or its future?

00:46:39: that I haven't asked you about?

00:46:45: I think we've covered pretty much everything.

00:46:48: Maybe one final thing, i'm a short-haul pilot with short mid and medium haul of my company.

00:46:57: We never touched on long haul.

00:46:58: so the problem right now is this from an european perspective um...we cannot fly over Russia We cannot fly over the Middle East, so whenever you want to send an aircraft from Europe to Southeast Asia.

00:47:17: You have to take a huge detour.

00:47:20: like I was a passenger on a flight from Tokyo to Munich we went north ,we went to Alaska .We went toward North Pole or Greenland and then came in all the way from the north down to Munich.

00:47:36: that adds A lot of time and a lot of extra fuel to all of this.

00:47:42: And therefore, airlines have become extremely cautious when it comes to opening long-haul routes... ...and generally just capacity on long haul routes.

00:47:54: So maybe one aspect we haven't touched at all is that I think Long-haul Airlines are affected more by these than short-haul airlines like here in Europe.

00:48:08: Your typical passenger from Germany that wants to go to Greece or Spain, he'll just go to Greek or Spain and it's the same route?

00:48:17: It's the Same aircraft.

00:48:18: everything is The same.

00:48:20: yes the fuel prices have gone up but That is compensated for by higher ticket prices.

00:48:26: long haul has become extremely complicated From a European perspective especially when you head east.

00:48:35: So maybe that will also have an effect, the typical thing of people starting off on short-haul and then going long haul might be slowing down as well a little bit because I think the long haul airlines are struggling to adjust to all.

00:48:53: this may be additional factor we haven't really talked about so far But that's the only other thing I can think of.

00:49:02: We've covered pretty much everything we could, at least in my opinion.

00:49:08: Yeah and it was super interesting also for me today.

00:49:12: Maybe will have another episode like this a few months or so Also for listeners If you think is good idea of mine Let us know.

00:49:24: on YouTube comment section Stefan runs a Discord server and there is also an Aviation Quest to see or an aviation quest podcast section.

00:49:36: Also, please leave your comments and please leave you thoughts email addresses on the homepage.

00:49:41: And yeah I think this part of AviationQuest to see with so-to say this future

00:49:52: potential

00:49:53: for future episodes.

00:49:56: Yeah, I mean given how quickly things change it would not surprise me if one day we have another episode where we talk about completely different things.

00:50:07: Hopefully also positive clear sky things like the weather forecast in a moment that's really changing but hopefully there is some sunshine also in the aviation industry at the end.

00:50:22: Well Stephan!

00:50:25: This is almost the end of another great episode, thank you for all your insights.

00:50:30: Wishing a great day on your sunny island and stay with me some deep breath minutes afterwards please.

00:50:38: but from my side anything to mention Stefan?

00:50:42: From my side, I am absolutely satisfied.

00:50:45: Great job Stefan!

00:50:48: No nothing from my side.

00:50:50: thank you to everyone if your still here for listening.

00:50:53: Thank You Jürgen and the great questions.

00:50:57: Like we said, maybe one day we can carry on this conversation once new things have developed.

00:51:03: Who knows who knows?

00:51:05: So also from my side big thank you to everyone and as always We would be really happy to have you back again very soon.

00:51:14: Okay.

00:51:14: Bye-bye.

00:51:16: Thank You for listening to aviation quest CC stories From above.

00:51:21: For more information

00:51:22: about

00:51:22: these episodes and everything we do visit our home page aviation-quest.cc.

00:51:30: We appreciate your time and support, And we'd love to have you back for the next episode.

00:51:36: Until then stay safe Stay curious Keep your passion for aviation flying high.